Australian Equities
The source and date for each idea read or heard are listed below.
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Australian Bonds
The source and date for each idea read or heard are listed below.
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Australian Property
The source and date for each idea read or heard are listed below.
The Australian, August 15 2026, This downturn could be different.
On May 30, 1990, the AFR's Pam Walkley predicted that the property downturn would be worse than that of 1974 and 1982. Sustained high interest rates, a strong A$, building union militancy and other factors have rocked the property market. It wasn't worse (only 9% vs 14% in 1982 and 15% in 1974).Note that the worse ever downturns were in 1890 in Melbourne (29%) and Sydney (37%).
Cameron Kusher belives that the 2026 downturn actually will be worse. He believed that rate cuts would be some way away and we've had significant tax changes. In 7 of the 10 most recent downturns, mortgate rate increases preceded the drop by 6 months. Yet, the interest rates were cut within 6 months and the property downturns were short. Often there is stimulus as well that keeps the downturn short. Elevated inflation has meant, however, that the RBA has less scope to cut rates this time. With a sub 4.5% unemployment rate, cost pressures from the Iran war, investment in data centres and household spending growing faster than inflation, the economy looks like it's far from a rate cut. The May 12th budget changes has also meant that investors (who have accounted for 40% of mortgages) have largely dropped out of the market. The 2017 downturn followed years of low inflation and so it was easier for the RBA to cut rates then. Kusher believes that rate cuts aren't expected until mid 2027 and so the property downturn will persist until then.
Yahoo finance Australia, September 3 2026, A perfect storm.
Construction gian Bathla, which was placed into administration last week owing $3.3bn, said a "perfect storm" hit the business at the wrong time. In a statement made last week Bathla Group co-founders and brothers Bhart Bhushan and Rajinder Mohan blamed slow sales, falling property prices and changes to property taxes in this year's federal budget. This has coincided with significant increases in construction costs which have been absorbed by the group. These changes in market conditions have had flow-on effects to lending markets, putting further pressure on the business."
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Australian Manufacturing and Jobs
The source and date for each idea read or heard are listed below.
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Other Ideas
The source and date for each idea read or heard are listed below.
The Australian, Feb 10 2026, The Geoff Wilson model for CGT change.
Reduce cgt discount from 50% to 25% on unproductive existing residential property, keep it at 50% for new property and increase it to 75% for Australian operating businesses.
The Australian, May 17 2026, Workaround to beat the government's tax raid ... by James Gerard.
As of budget night, negative gearing on existing property will be kaput. Rental losses can only be used to offset tax once your property has become positively geared. Geared share portfoliosproducing a cash flow loss can still be offset against income as the interest expenses exceeding dividend yield will result in a net loss. This does not help ungeared shared portfolios. Owners of geared shared portfolios can use their interest expenses to inflate their cost base BUT if they choose that route, they cannot claim the tax discount. Super was untouched by the May 12th budget.
The Australian, June 3 2026, Minster for full tax discretion
The government had not really thought the budget through and the proof for this reasoning lies in the fact that the treasurer painted the budget in broad terms and left it to ministers to define the details later. Nine decision were left to future ministerial decisions (1) Defining a new residential dwelling (2) Apportionment method for transitional gains (3) Additional cgt asset classes for the 50% discount (4) Income support payment exemptions (5) Additional dwelling use exemptions (6) Additional business enterprise exemptions (7) Additional entity class exemptions (??) (8) Exclusions from residential dwelling definition and (9) An alternative method for calculating the max amount of the workers' tax offset.
The Australian, June 3 2026, Spruik tax cut
In this article, an interesting stat appeared. The workers' tax cut is meant to appeal to gen Z and Y voters (~ 47% of voters) and hit the boomers (~33%) BUT have they forgotten the X gen (~20%)? Together, the boomers and Xers make up 67% of voters. Have the albo budgeteers really thought this through?
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